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Statistical Downscaling of Daily Precipitation Process at an Ungaged Location in the Context of Climate Change

机译:气候变化背景下干旱地区日常降水过程的统计缩减

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Downscaling methods have been proposed for establishing the linkages between the large-scale climate variables given by GCMs and the observed characteristics of hydrologic variables at a local site. These downscaling methods, however, are not suitable for dealing with cases where the hydrologic data at the location of interest are limited (a partially-gauged site) or not available (an ungauged site). The downscaling of a hydrologic process such as the daily precipitation for such cases remains still a crucial challenge for water resources planning and management in practice. The present study proposes therefore a statistical downscaling (SD) approach to establishing accurately the linkages between the climate variables given by GCM outputs and the "estimated" daily precipitation characteristics at a location of interest where the precipitation data are limited or unavailable. More specifically, the suggested SD procedure is based on a combination of two components: (ⅰ) a regional stochastic method for reconstructing the unmeasured daily precipitation series at the ungauged site; and (ⅱ) a SD model for describing the linkage between the constructed daily precipitation series and the climatic predictors given by GCM outputs. The feasibility and accuracy of the proposed SD procedure was assessed based on the NCEP re-analysis and observed daily precipitation data available from a network of 62 raingages in South Korea. Results of this assessment have indicated that the proposed procedure could provide comparable results as those given by the downscaling using real observed precipitation data at the same local site.
机译:已经提出了缩小尺度的方法,以建立由GCM给出的大规模气候变量与当地观测到的水文变量特征之间的联系。但是,这些缩减方法不适用于处理感兴趣位置的水文数据有限(部分测量的站点)或不可用(未测量的站点)的情况。在这种情况下,水文过程的规模缩小,例如每天的降水量仍然是水资源规划和管理中的关键挑战。因此,本研究提出了一种统计降尺度(SD)方法,以准确建立GCM输出给出的气候变量与降水量数据有限或不可用的感兴趣位置的“估计”每日降水量特征之间的联系。更具体地说,建议的SD程序是基于两个要素的组合:(ⅰ)一种区域随机方法,用于重建未测量站点的未测日降水量序列; (ⅱ)SD模型,用于描述构造的每日降水量序列与GCM输出给出的气候预测因子之间的联系。根据NCEP重新分析评估了拟议的SD程序的可行性和准确性,并从韩国62个牧场的网络中观察到了每日降水数据。评估结果表明,所建议的程序可以提供与在相同本地站点上使用实际观测到的降水量数据进行缩减所得出的结果相当的结果。

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    《》|2015年|1145-1154|共10页
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  • 入库时间 2022-08-26 14:29:53

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