Model of Assessment of the Risk of Investing in the Projects of Production of Biofuel Raw Materials

摘要

The article outlines the peculiarities of investor valuation of projects for the production of raw materials for biofuels. Is proposed a model of assessing the risk of investment in projects for the production of raw materials for biofuels (PPMB). The described a model of assessing the risk of investment in PPMB involves the use of methods of the mathematical statistics and of the theory of probability. It provides a quantative determination of risks of evaluation indicators of the mentioned projects. Contrary to the existing models and methods, it determines the probability of profit making, expected by the investor from the obtained product (raw materials for biofuel) of the mentioned projects. The authors identified risk indicators for investment in PPMB, using the proposed model. It required completing of the analysis of statistical data and their visualization in the Python 3.8 language with application of matplotlib, numpy and scipy libraries. It secured a risk assessment of the investors profit in the projects producing raw materials for biofuels. It is proved that distribution of profits, made by investors of projects for the production of raw materials for biofuels, made from rapeseed, is described by the Gaussion distribution law. The statistical characteristics of that distribution are the mathematical expectation - 534 $/ha; the mean square deviation - 133.8 $/ha; the variation factor - 0.25. For a given project environment and a minimum profit of project investors of $ 500 / ha, it will be obtained with average risk (probability 0.41), whereas under the minimal profit of more than 600 $/ha, it is made at the high risk (probability 0.72).