Risk management, professional judgement, chaos theory and fuzzypossibility

摘要

Professional judgement is an integral part of risk assessment, andan important tool in rationalizing risk management. In order to exerciseprofessional judgement, corporate decision makers make intuitiveassumptions about the complex behaviour of businesses and corporations.They implicitly assume (1) a degree of continuity, and (2) thepossibility of discontinuities. The informal, professional reasoningthat follows from these assumptions is described. Then, the author usesthe two fundamental principles of self organization from chaos theory(self similarity, and sensitivity-to-prevailing-conditions), to makethese assumptions explicit. Finally, reference is made to a fuzzyimplication operator that captures mathematically the informal reasoninginherent in professional judgement. It is argued that the mathematicaltools that embody the new operator can make the everyday exercise ofprofessional judgement in risk assessment more consistent and rigorous