An Optimal Trajectory-based Trajectory Prediction Method for Automated Traffic Flow Management

摘要

The operational efficiency of current air traffic in Japan is expected to be improved by introducing an automated traffic flow management, where passing time at fixed points are assigned to each flight while maintaining the performance of each aircraft. Flight trajectory prediction is a key technology for precise prediction of the passing time. If the flight time can be predicted with enough accuracy, and if the optimal arrival time can be calculated in advance on ground side, the overall efficiency will increase because each aircraft will be able to fly with an aim to achieve the individually-assigned optimal time. This research develops a calculation tool that enables precise trajectory prediction, with the purpose of providing trajectories that are identical to those generated by Flight Management System on board. In the tool, a trajectory optimization calculation is performed for various cost index values with given flight route and initial aircraft mass setting. The most probable optimal trajectory is adopted as the predicted trajectory. The trajectories of calibrated airspeed and true airspeed estimated from the tracking data are used as a reference to determine the predicted trajectory. The prediction accuracy of the time at which the aircraft passes a fixed point is evaluated by comparing the flight time of the tool's predicted trajectories with the flight time data of actual trajectories.