The Impact of Climate Change on Urban Environment in GCC Countries and Related Energy Systems: Mitigation Measures and Associated Challenges

摘要

Emissions related to energy consumption in buildings could rapidly increase in the following decades, considering the high probability of increased outdoor temperatures and more frequent and prolonged heat waves. Countries with extreme climate, rapidly growing urban environment, and fossil fuel-based energy systems [for example, Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) member states] would be most susceptible to such impacts. The main goal of this study is to evaluate the increase in building energy demand in GCC countries, driven by climate change, and assess the efficiency of suggested mitigation measures. Moreover, the potential obstacles for the implementation of such measures are examined from an interdisciplinary perspective. The results were obtained by simulating building energy performance for a representative residential building, under reference and forecasted weather conditions for all GCC member states. The findings indicate building energy demand increase of up to 16% and 28% in 2050 and 2080 (respectively). By implementing building envelope renovation as a mitigation measure, future energy demand could be reduced for up to 20%, achieving significant carbon emission savings. However, while such renovation measures proved to be economically and environmentally feasible in developed countries, additional investigation should be performed for GCC countries, taking into account local sociopolitical, environmental, and economic aspects.