Disruptive Technology Forecasting based on Gartner Hype Cycle

摘要

The continuous breakthrough of scientific research and the emergence of new technologies have made our list of "technologies of tomorrow" longer and longer[1]-[9], and only some of these technologies have the potential to change existing patterns, change people's lifestyles, construct the new value system and bring new products or services to human beings. This part of technology is disruptive technology. Identifying potential disruptive technologies, on the one hand, allows policy makers to predict technology landscape in a timely manner and efficiently allocate resources and funding to the R&D of these technologies. On the other hand, it has universal guiding significance for all kinds of innovators and consumers. In this paper, we propose a discriminate model based on machine learning to identify potential disruptive technologies. Through feature engineering, we extract most characteristic of disruptive technology. We use Gartner Hype Cycle technologies as training data, train our model to identify new disruptive technologies. The model demonstrates how to do technology forecasting in a more controllable, repeatable and verifiable way.