Estimation and Prediction of Road Traffic Emissions in Ulaanbaatar

摘要

In this paper, a dynamic model of mobile sources of air pollution is used to predict emission levels from a vehicle population within a monitoring system over time. This model is also used to assess the effectiveness of applying a new gas exhaust standard. Regarding the results in relation to vehicle type, HDVs (heavy duty vehicles) were the main sources of NO_x and PM， accounting for 57% of NO_x and 70.1% of PM emissions in Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia. The HDVs and other vehicles more than 10 years old, accounted for a significant proportion of the total pollution. In comparing 2015 with 2040， the total vehicle population was increased 3.9 times, the total vehicle emission level was increased 4.3 times. The emission level of NO_x, PM and CO_2 was increased about 4.2 times, and CO was increased 2.8 times. We made an emission estimate to apply the Euro 4 and 5 standards in Ulaanbaatar by 2 scenario. The result of scenario 1，by converting to the Euro standard, the emission level in the real situation shows that NO_x was 1/3, PM was 1/7-1/37, and CO was 1/3-1/5. As a result for the scenario 2， the emission level in the real situation reduced that NO_x 0.8-22%, PM 10-38%, and CO 4-27%.