In arid and semi-arid regions of North West china, glacier-melt, seasonal snowmelt and rainfall are the primary sources of flow in the rivers that originate from alpine areas. Spring and summer peak flow resulting from snowmelt and rainfall, respectively, are the main characteristics of streamflow pattern. Because of the damages caused by the spring and summer peak flow, a better understanding of the streamflow pattern variation under future climate warming is crucial. To analyze the variation of streamflow pattern under climate warming, the Kaidu River and the Manasi River watersheds in northern and southern slopes of Middle Tianshan Mountains, located in Xinjiang were selected as study areas. These watersheds receive water from water sources in different proportions. A modified hydrological model was forced with metrological data from CIMP5 data set and the streamflow in Kaidu and Manasi River watersheds were simulated. The results indicate that one-peak-flow pattern is projected to turn to the two-peak-flow pattern in the Manasi River watershed in the future. The two-peak flow pattern will continue in the Kaidu River watershed, but the dominant peak flow will shift from summer to spring in future. This study provides useful information for water resources managers to take different actions to reduce damages caused by spring and summer peak flow under future climate warming.
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