This study presents a top-down, bottom-up modeling framework to investigate the effects of future climate on crop production in the Mississippi River Basin, a world leading crop producer. Specifically, this study will examine how climate will alter erosion, soil organic carbon (SOC) loss, soil moisture, and hence crop yields. Representative hillslopes from the Obion River watershed in west Tennessee/ southwest Kentucky are identified using outputs from the variable infiltration capacity (VIC) regional hydrologic model. This identification criteria considers both soil properties and changing hydrology, through the runoff coefficient. In the representative areas a process-based, hillslope-scale, erosion model, namely the water erosion prediction project (WEPP), is used to examine the cause-effect relations between management and climate with soil erosion, SOC loss, and changes in soil moisture. The ultimate goal of this study is to forecast yield variations until 2050 under established climate scenarios to find sustainable solutions.
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