This study presents a top-down, bottom-up modeling framework to investigate the effects of future climate on crop production in the Mississippi River Basin, a world leading crop producer. Specifically, this study will examine how climate will alter erosion, soil organic carbon (SOC) loss, soil moisture, and hence crop yields. Representative hillslopes from the Obion River watershed in west Tennessee/ southwest Kentucky are identified using outputs from the variable infiltration capacity (VIC) regional hydrologic model. This identification criteria considers both soil properties and changing hydrology, through the runoff coefficient. In the representative areas a process-based, hillslope-scale, erosion model, namely the water erosion prediction project (WEPP), is used to examine the cause-effect relations between management and climate with soil erosion, SOC loss, and changes in soil moisture. The ultimate goal of this study is to forecast yield variations until 2050 under established climate scenarios to find sustainable solutions.
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机译：本研究提出了一项自上而下的自下而上的建模框架，以调查一个世界领先的作物生产国密西西比河流域未来气候对农作物生产的影响。具体而言，该研究将研究气候如何改变侵蚀，土壤有机碳（SoC）损失，土壤水分，以及作物产量。来自West Tennessee / Southwest Kentucky的Obion River Hatershed的代表性Hillslopes使用来自可变渗透能力（VIC）区域水文模型的输出来确定。该识别标准通过径流系数考虑土壤性质和改变水文。在代表领域，基于过程的，山坡级，侵蚀模型，即水腐蚀预测项目（WEPP），用于检查管理和气候与土壤侵蚀，SOC损失和土壤变化之间的造成关系关系水分。本研究的最终目标是预测产量变异，直到2050年在建立的气候情景下找到可持续解决方案。
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