The simulation and management of adaptive smart grid oriented power mix based on evolutionary dynamic mechanism under high percentage of renewable energy policy

摘要

On the basis of evolutionary economics & adaptive control theory, this study tries to develop an integrated energy resource portfolio, applying the concept of smart grid, to provide the following functions: (1) accommodating supply-side, demand-side and regulating resources, (2) dynamically balancing supply and demand, and (3) coping with the challenge of climate change. To perform dynamic multi-agent system (MAS) empirical simulations, we further accommodate the following variables: (1) state variables, (2) measurement variables, (3) performance variables and (4) control variables, and the mutual relationship and interactions of the variables from the feedback mechanism. The results of the simulation under various scenarios are: (1) adaptive electricity demand, (2) adaptive self-organized non-linear path dependence for smart grid energy resources portfolio, (3) adaptive reserve capacity for evolutionary power resource planning & assets management, (4) adaptive electricity prices, which can be served as references of decision-making for the planning and management of electric power system.