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A Log Regression Seasonality Based Approach for Time Series Decomposition Prediction in System Resources

机译:基于对数回归季节性的系统资源时间序列分解预测方法

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It has been challenging to predict data in terms of monitoring information technology (IT) resources. In order to obtain the quality and performance of products, changes can be detected and monitored setting up a fixed threshold value based on statistics and operation experiences. Monitoring data by a fixed threshold value may not work properly during none busy hours in exceptional situations whereas a usage change during busy hours can be detected. It is because it cannot reflect the trend of resource usage seasonality as a function of time. The technique based on Time Series Decomposition (TSD) can provide the one with appropriate methodology so that problems can be recognized and diagnosed and the correction can be made ahead of time by detecting a subtle status change of devices in massive IT resources. In this paper, we propose three approaches to predict data such as Intelligent Threshold, Abnormal Pattern Detection, time prediction of reaching target value; the appropriate trend detection of Time Series, optimal seasonality detection and technique using Log Regression Seasonality. The experimental data collected here exhibit that it can reflect the change over time to the prediction data improving its accuracy compared to existing TSD technique.
机译:根据监视信息技术(IT)资源来预测数据一直具有挑战性。为了获得产品的质量和性能,可以检测和监视更改,并根据统计数据和操作经验设置固定的阈值。在特殊情况下,在固定的阈值下监视数据在繁忙时段可能无法正常工作,而在繁忙时段可以检测到使用情况发生变化。这是因为它不能反映资源使用季节性随时间变化的趋势。基于时间序列分解(TSD)的技术可以为人们提供适当的方法,从而可以通过检测大量IT资源中设备的细微状态变化来识别和诊断问题,并可以提前进行纠正。在本文中,我们提出了三种预测数据的方法,例如智能阈值,异常模式检测,达到目标值的时间预测。适当的时间序列趋势检测,最佳季节性检测和使用对数回归季节性的技术。此处收集的实验数据表明,与现有的TSD技术相比,它可以将随时间的变化反映到预测数据上,从而提高了其准确性。

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