Can Metropolitan Planning Organizations Stop Rising Greenhouse Gas Emissions?

摘要

We consider changes to the road network, transit investments, congestion relief measures, bicycle network investments, growth boundaries, and higher taxes on vehicle use. We also assume that in all scenarios that the vehicle fleet becomes more efficient overtime as newer, more efficient, vehicles replace older vehicles. The only strategy that we identify as likely to stop the growth in transportation sector GHG emissions requires imposing a relatively high VMT tax (6 cents per mile) or significantly increasing the gasoline excise tax ($1.24 per gallon). The other strategies can make significant contributions to reduce regional GHG emissions but even when pooled together they do not go far enough. The results of our analysis demonstrate the importance of integrated land-use and transportation planning. More importantly, our analysis cautions against an over reliance on land-use strategies alone. Assuming that the strategies considered in Albuquerque would have similar effects in other regions, our analysis demonstrates deep cuts in GHG emissions are possible over the next several decades but that the most effective strategies are also among the most politically sensitive and likely the most difficult to implement. If cities aim to hold down their growth in transportation sector GHG emissions, and eventually reduce them, by 2050 in an effort to avoid the most severe climate change impacts, very aggressive pricing strategies are needed (which could also come from policies that price the carbon in transportation fuels) or a much greater than anticipated increase in vehicle fuel efficiency, and penetration of low carbon fuels and alternatively fueled vehicles.