Why Are Estimates Always Wrong: Estimation Bias and Strategic Misestimation

摘要

Many people view an estimate as a quick guess that no one believes anyhow.. But producing a viable estimate is core to project success as well as ROI determination and other decision making. In decades of studying the art and science of estimating it has become obvious that: 1) Most people don't like to estimate; Most people don't know how to estimate, 3) Those that estimate are often always wildly optimistic, full of unintentional bias; 5)strategic misestimating provides misleading estimates when it occurs and 5) Viable estimates can make projects successful, outsourcing more cost effective, and help businesses make the most informed decisions. That is why metrics and models are essential to organizations, providing the tempering with that outside view of reality that is recommended by Daniel Kahneman in his Nobel prize winning work in estimation bias and strategic mis-estimation.