Optimizing the energy portfolio of the Mexican electricity sector by 2050 considering CO_2eq emissions and Life Cycle Assessment

摘要

Today, Mexico is one of the leading countries of the Latin American region in receiving foreign direct investment, with expected GDP growth for the coming years between 4% and 6% per annum, according to estimates published by the OECD and other international organizations. Sustaining such growth demands the strengthening of one of the main pillars of economic development, the National Electricity Sector. To accomplish this growth in the electricity sector will require an energy portfolio that allows for three basic conditions in the sector's planning: reliability, economy and sustainability. To ensure the sustainability of the National Electric Sector, the optimal energy portfolio must meet the CO_2eq emission reduction that the country has adopted based on international commitments. Sources of electricity generation with low water consumption as well as reduced pollutant discharge are needed, given the great importance of water efficiency in energy production. This paper determines an optimal energy portfolio involving conventional technologies, clean technologies and alternative and intermittent renewable technologies, based on a simple optimization model and using variables such as future electricity demand, CO_2eq emissions by source, and taking into account data from several studies of life cycle assessment of the electricity sector, such as energy payback rate and water pollution. The research presented assumes two scenarios of growth in electricity demand of about 350 and 1, 150 TW-hours in 2050.