Estimated trends in pollutant emissions for light-duty passenger vehicles in China from 2010 to 2030

摘要

China's total stock of light-duty passenger vehicles (LDPVs) has increased to 55 million by 2010, accounting for 70% of total civil vehicles in China. This study estimates the emissions of CO, THC and NO_x of LDPVs from 2010 to 2030, for both developed regions with higher vehicle density (e.g. Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region, the Yangtze River Delta, and etc.) and the less developed regions in middle and western China (e.g., Gansu). Emission controls on new vehicles and in-use vehicles, improvement in fuel quality, penetration of alternative-fuel and advanced vehicle technologies, economic policies, and temporal traffic control measures have been taken into account by various designed scenarios. Our results indicate that the estimated emissions of CO, HC and NO_x for LDPVs would probably stop increasing by 2030 in developed regions under a Business As Usual (BAU) Scenario. For example, in Jiangsu Province, the estimated emissions of CO in 2030 would have an about 18% reduction compared with 2010 levels. In particular, estimated emissions are predicted to significantly decrease under several very stringent control scenarios. For those less developed regions like Gansu province, estimated emissions will possibly keep an increasing trend till 2030, if effective control methods are not implemented there. This study will help policy-makers understand the current and future vehicle control strategies and their effects on emissions.