The forecast of cultivate land quantity based on Grey-Markov model: A case study of Jiangsu province

摘要

The change of cultivated land resources concerns national food security and sustainable development of economy and society. So that, it is significant to choose a scientific and reasonable prediction. But, the methods' alteration towards the arable land survey causes the system uncertainty. This paper employed the Gray-Markov Chain Model for the scale prediction of cultivated land and took an empirical research with a case of Jiangsu province. The results show that the Gray-Markov Chain Model has a higher prediction accuracy compared with GM (1,1), which is a reliable guarantee for the change of cultivated land resources.