The optimized GPM(1,1) for forecasting small sample oscillating series

摘要

This paper puts forward a modeling approach for oscillating series based on an optimized grey power model with first-order one-variable (abbreviated as GPM(1,1). An optimization method is used to determine the initial value in GPM(1,1) model, and furthermore, the parameters in the model are optimized by utilizing a non-linear programming model. The results show that the modeling approach proposed in this paper can reflect the fluctuation of original data and be solved handily using a computer. The range of application of Grey Model is further extended to forecast oscillating series. The effectiveness of the optimized GPM(1,1) model is demonstrated by an actual case study.