Comparison of two mathematical models for predicting the fallout hazard from terrorist nuclear detonations

摘要

In the present world, some terrorist actions may even involve nuclear detonations. To reduce the damages, the national decision makers need a tool to rapidly predict the fallout hazard from terrorist nuclear detonations. In this article, two dissimilar mathematical models, SILAM and ALAMA, intended to fallout predictions were compared at in one real meteorological situation. Two improvised nuclear explosion yield scenarios were prepared for calculations. The comparison results seem to infer that "simple" models are as applicable as more "advanced" ones in emergency applications, especially in the near field. It must also be noted, that "simple" models are operational faster and easier to use, which is an important asset in an emergency.