THE NCG FALLOUT SCALING MODEL: A GRAPHIC-NUMERICAL METHOD OF PREDICTING FALLOUT PATTERNS FOR NUCLEAR CRATERING DETONATIONS.

摘要

A scaling model is developed to predict the H + 1hour exposure rate in the area contaminated by the radioactive fallout from an underground nuclear detonation fired at any depth of burst. Exposure rate predictions can be made within the base surge region in both the upwind and crosswind directions and in the downwind fallout pattern to a distance at which the 0.01R/hr exposure contour would be experienced. These predictions can then be used to construct isoexposure-rate contour maps for feasibility studies. The model is developed by requiring the observed and predicted exposure rates for seven underground (DANNY BOY, TEAPOT ESS, CABRIOLET, SEDAN, SCHOONER, JANGLE U,and BUGGY) and two surfaCE (JANGLES and JOHNIE BOY) detonations to be consistent. The results indicate that predictions based on this model will be reliable to within a factor of 2to 4. A significant result of this investigation was a method of the partitioning of activity between the base surge and the main cloud. (Author)