Impacts of human activities and climatic change on water resource in Hebei province

摘要

Using hydrological and meteorological data of Hebei Province from 1956 to 2000, judged the time of actual land cover, established the correlativity between precipitation and water resource before and behind the land cover change, estimated the influence for water resource from human activity. According to the relationship between water resource series under actual land cover conditions and climate factors (precipitation, evaporation and temperature), established the logarithmic nonlinear statistical model, it''s of obvious correlation and high sensitivity. According climate scenarios data of year 2030 and 2050 to predict the change on water resource, compared with the standard climate values, in 2030 year, precipitation will increase by 4% to 12%, temperature will rise 1.1 ∼ 1.4 °C, water resource will be 183.8×108 ∼ 217.6×108m3; In 2050 year, precipitation will increase by 4% to 14%, temperature will rise 1.7 ∼ 2.2°C, water resource will be 106.8×108m3 ∼ 137.8 × 108m3.