Evaluation of Climate Change Impacts to Reservoir Operations within the Connecticut River Basin

摘要

Streamflow timing has shifted for many streams across New England (Hodgkins 2003, USGS 2005). Current climate change forecasts project this trend to continue as a result of earlier snow melt, increased evapotranspiration, and more precipitation falling as rain during the winter season. Climate change requires the development of new operating policies for reservoirs throughout the region. This research addresses the potential impacts of climate change on reservoir operations within two watersheds of the Connecticut River Basin by generating a set of future streamflow data for 2025, 2050, and 2075.Two watersheds in the Connecticut River basin with dams that operate to meet hydropower and flood control objectives were selected to demonstrate climate impacts on different management goals. Climate data from General Circulation Models (GCMs) and two emission scenarios were downscaled. These data were used to establish a temperature and precipitation alteration for each future year of interest that was then used in calibrated hydrology models of each watershed to generate streamflow representative of climate change. Climate adjusted streamflow data were created to be incorporated into optimization models that replicate current dam operations and that can generate alternative operations that mitigate the undesirable effects of climate change. These changes in operational rules will provide stakeholders evaluation tools to investigate different adaptation strategies and determine which strategy best suits each basin.