Analysis of Electricity Demand Forecasting in Inner Mongolia Based on Gray Markov Model

摘要

Accurate electricity demand forecasting is the foundation of power system operation and planning, the basic of placing development plans, business strategy and tactics of the power companies. Electricity consumption is a gray system which is impacted by economic development, industrial structure, income levels and national policies. The paper counted Inner Mongolia electricity data from four factors, used the gray model GM (1, n) to predict, established Markov model from the percentage of relative deviation δ of the fitted value and actual value, and revised forecast values obtained from gray model. At last, the paper predicted the demand for electric power industry in Inner Mongolia by gray Markov model.