首页> 外文会议>IPC2008;ASME international pipeline conference;International pipeline conference >PARAMETRIC AND NON-PARAMETRIC SURVIVAL MODELS FOR 'TIME TO FAILURE' OF WATER PIPELINES: CASE STUDY
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PARAMETRIC AND NON-PARAMETRIC SURVIVAL MODELS FOR 'TIME TO FAILURE' OF WATER PIPELINES: CASE STUDY

机译:输水管道“失效时间”的参数和非参数生存模型:案例研究

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An application of survival analysis on Iranian water pipelines failure dataset is employed to shed additional light on the pipeline failure process as well as to extract useful information that can be helpful in future asset management planning.Survival analysis characterizes the distribution of the survival time for different groups of pipes, to compare this survival time among different type of materials. A parametric model is developed to simulate time to failure in the pipe network. The model was calibrated on the historical failure data collected over the period 1995 - 2001, and then it was tested using data since 2002.Using both parametric and non-parametric survival models makes it possible to establish a priority list for future water pipelines rehabilitation undertakings in accordance with their material type. Accordingly, it is recommended that implementation of pipeline rehabilitation projects proceeds firstly on metallic water mains, then on plastic water mains, and finally on cement water pipelines.
机译:生存分析在伊朗水管道故障数据集上的应用被用于进一步了解管道故障过程以及提取有用的信息,这些信息将有助于未来的资产管理计划。 生存分析描述了不同组管道的生存时间分布,以比较不同类型材料之间的生存时间。开发了一个参数模型来模拟管网中的故障时间。该模型基于1995年至2001年期间收集的历史故障数据进行了校准,然后使用2002年以来的数据进行了测试。 同时使用参数和非参数生存模型,可以根据其材料类型为未来的输水管道修复事业建立优先清单。因此,建议管道修复项目的实施首先在金属水管上,然后在塑料水管上,最后在水泥水管上进行。

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