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PARAMETRIC AND NON-PARAMETRIC SURVIVAL MODELS FOR 'TIME TO FAILURE' OF WATER PIPELINES: CASE STUDY

机译:水道管道“失败”的参数和非参数救生模型:案例研究

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An application of survival analysis on Iranian water pipelines failure dataset is employed to shed additional light on the pipeline failure process as well as to extract useful information that can be helpful in future asset management planning. Survival analysis characterizes the distribution of the survival time for different groups of pipes, to compare this survival time among different type of materials. A parametric model is developed to simulate time to failure in the pipe network. The model was calibrated on the historical failure data collected over the period 1995 - 2001, and then it was tested using data since 2002. Using both parametric and non-parametric survival models makes it possible to establish a priority list for future water pipelines rehabilitation undertakings in accordance with their material type. Accordingly, it is recommended that implementation of pipeline rehabilitation projects proceeds firstly on metallic water mains, then on plastic water mains, and finally on cement water pipelines.
机译:对伊朗水管失败数据集的存活分析应用于管道故障过程中的额外灯,并提取有助于未来资产管理计划的有用信息。存活分析表征了不同群体的存活时间的分布,将这种生存时间与不同类型的材料进行比较。开发了参数模型以模拟管道网络中失败的时间。在1995年至2001年期间收集的历史失败数据上校准了该模型,然后通过2002年以来使用数据进行测试。使用参数和非参数生存模型可以建立未来水管康复承诺的优先级列表按照他们的材料类型。因此,建议实施管道康复项目首先在金属水线上进行,然后在塑料水线上进行,最后在水泥水管道上。

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