首页> 外国专利> A computerised model for predicting time to failure (survival analysis) of components for example of an electrical submersible pump.

A computerised model for predicting time to failure (survival analysis) of components for example of an electrical submersible pump.

机译:一种用于预测部件(例如潜水电泵)的故障时间(生存分析)的计算机模型。

摘要

A statistical methodology is disclosed to provide time-to-event estimates for oilfield equipment utilising Kaplan-Meier and Cox modelling approaches, Lunn-McNeil analysis of competing risks and Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) to select the best approximation model. A method according to the present invention extracts unbiased information from equipment performance data and considers parameters interactions without recourse to data thinning. The analysis explicitly accounts for items of equipment that are still operational at the time of analysis. A method according to the present invention may also be utilised to apply survival analysis to any oilfield equipment components where time-to-event information has been recorded. The method of the present invention allows comparative reckoning between different components present in the system comprising several or many individual components and allows survival analysis of these components either individually or simultaneously, i.e., in the presence of other components.
机译:公开了一种统计方法,以利用Kaplan-Meier和Cox建模方法,对竞争风险的Lunn-McNeil分析和Akaike信息准则(AIC)来选择最佳近似模型,以提供油田设备的事前估计。根据本发明的方法从设备性能数据中提取无偏信息,并且在不求助于数据稀疏的情况下考虑参数相互作用。该分析明确考虑了在分析时仍可运行的设备项目。根据本发明的方法还可以用于将生存分析应用于已经记录了事件发生时间信息的任何油田设备部件。本发明的方法允许在包括几个或许多单个部件的系统中存在的不同部件之间进行比较计算,并允许单独地或同时地,即在存在其他部件的情况下对这些部件进行生存分析。

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