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EVALUATING SPACE COLLISION SCENARIOS WITH CLOSEAP

机译:用CLOSEAP评估空间碰撞场景

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In recent years, the space debris has gained a lot of interest as part of the space environment due to the increasing population of uncontrolled man-made objects orbiting the Earth, which is causing a significant risk of collision with the operating satellites. Currently, there are more than 600,000 objects larger than 1 cm in orbit (according to the ESA MASTER-2005 model) particularly concentrated in the most busy and interesting orbits for current and future missions; and after each collision or event a considerable amount of new debris appear in space.CRASS for Collision Risk Assessment and ODIN for Orbit Determination have been developed as part of the initiative for a future European Space Situational Awareness System to answer the concerns of satellite operators. These software packages initially used by the Space Debris Office at ESOC are also the basis for closeap, GMV's integrated solution for the analysis and mitigation of space collision situations. Implementation of the CRASS algorithms of Smart Sieve and revised and up to date SGP equations in the orbit propagation module have led to a more efficient assessment of the conjunctions, to predict the collisions and provide this as input for the computation of avoidance manoeuvres. The revised SGP models have improved the deficiencies of the previous implementations and have been integrated with NAPEOS (Navigation Package for Earth Orbiting Satellites) to improve the orbit determination, prediction and analysis capabilities.In this work the implementation of these algorithms in closeap, and the resulting capabilities for conjunction assessment, and collision probability prediction are described. Whereas the algorithms are normally described from a general point of view and also analyzed in this way, the interesting situations are those not covered by the generic approach. All software used in closeap is operational and fully validated; however, the nature of the collision risk assessment problem leaves always a certain level of uncertainty about whether all possible approach events have been detected. The work described by this paper focuses in the identification of those limiting scenarios and the ability of closeap to detect them and to provide adequate collision probability values that can be fuerther used operationally.
机译:近年来,由于越来越多的不受控制的人造物体绕地球运转,空间碎片作为空间环境的一部分引起了人们的极大兴趣,这引起了与正在运行的卫星发生碰撞的巨大风险。目前,有超过600,000个大于1厘米的轨道物体(根据ESA MASTER-2005模型),特别集中在当前和将来执行任务的最繁忙和最有趣的轨道上;每次碰撞或事件发生后,太空中都会出现大量新碎片。 碰撞风险评估CRASS和轨道确定ODIN已开发,是未来欧洲空间态势感知系统计划的一部分,旨在解决卫星运营商的担忧。这些软件包最初由ESOC的空间碎片办公室使用,也是closeap的基础,closeap是GMV的用于分析和缓解空间碰撞情况的集成解决方案。在轨道传播模块中实施智能筛分的CRASS算法以及修订和最新的SGP方程可以更有效地评估合点,以预测碰撞并将其作为计算回避动作的输入。修改后的SGP模型改善了先前实施的缺陷,并已与NAPEOS(地球轨道卫星导航软件包)集成在一起,以改善轨道确定,预测和分析能力。 在这项工作中,将详细介绍这些算法的实现方式,以及由此产生的用于合取评估和碰撞概率预测的功能。尽管通常从一般角度描述算法并以这种方式进行分析,但有趣的情况是通用方法未涵盖的情况。 closeap中使用的所有软件均已运行且经过充分验证;然而,碰撞风险评估问题的本质总是在一定程度上不确定是否已检测到所有可能的进近事件。本文描述的工作着重于识别那些限制性场景以及closeap能够检测到它们并提供足够的碰撞概率值的能力,这些值可以在操作中进一步使用。

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