Explaining Intercity Variations in Urban Size: An Empirical Study of Chinese Cities

摘要

The theoretic framework of new urban economics, monocentric urban model, suggests that urban size is determined by an orderly market process which allocates land between urban and agricultural use. Several factors, including population growth, personal income, transportation costs and agricultural land value, are assumed to explain most of urban growth over time and urban size variations across cities. This paper focuses empirically on the variations of urban sizes among Chinese cities by employing the classic mono-centric model in urban economics. The econometric results suggest that fundamental economics factors, identified by the mono-centric theory, are of primary importance explaining the variation of urban spatial sizes. The empirical study contains data of more than 200 major cities in China and over 10 years. In cross-sectional analysis, population, transportation costs, personal income and agricultural land price determine nearly 90% of variations. In panel data analysis, population growth is the most influential factor.