Building a market share model of Alternative Fuel Vehicles:from generic system archetypes to system dynamics modelling

摘要

This study investigates the market barriers in increasing the market share of Alternative Fuel Vehicles (AFVs). In particular, this study first conceptualises the AFVs market model by aid of generic system archetypes suggested by Wolstenhome. Among four generic system archetypes suggested by Wolstenhome, the market structure of AFVs can be explained by the 'relative achievement' archetype. Starting from the generic system archetype, this study extends the model boundary step by step to take account of various model assumptions necessary to simulate the model numerically. If there is a significant network effect on vehicle operating costs, it is difficult to achieve the shift to AFVs even in the long term without a policy intervention because the car market is locked in to the current structure. There are several possible policy options to break the 'locked in' structure of car market, such as subsidy on vehicle price (capital cost), subsidy on fuel (operating cost) and niche management policy.