RETHINKING THE CONFLICT TRAP: SYSTEMS DYNAMICS AS A TOOL TO UNDERSTANDING CIVIL WARS THE CASE OF COLOMBIA

摘要

This paper presents the first phase of a work in progress which aims at building a System Dynamics model around two theories concerning internal conflict. The model will asses the particular case of Colombia, that is characterized by the presence of armed groups that interact strongly with the illicit trade of drugs, the kidnappings and extortion, and have a discourse that places emphasis on political grievances.The different theories around the economics and causes of war can be separated in different trends. This work assess two of them: the first one argues that wars are economically motivated, and that the real objective of armed groups is the quest for money; this theory is characterized under the term greed. On the other side, there are the social, political and historical factors that allow and facilitate the emergence of armed groups (grievances). This investigation aims to develop a better understanding of the complex interactions around the Colombian conflict, considering both theories and seeks to build a better comprehension of this conflict in order to study how to generate development during an internal conflict.