Mountainous Terrain and Civil Wars: Geospatial Analysis of Conflict Dynamics in the Post-Soviet Caucasus

摘要

Existing research on the relationship between mountainous terrain and conflict has generally been implemented using crude metrics capturing the actions and motivations of armed groups, both insurgent and government. We provide a more geographically nuanced investigation of two specific propositions relating mountainous terrain to violent conflict activity. Our study covers five wars in the Caucasus region: the second North Caucasus war in Chechnya and neighboring republics (1999–2012); Islamist and Russian government conflict in the same area (2002–2012); fighting between Armenians and Azerbaijanis in Nagorno-Karabakh (1990–2012); and battles between Georgia and separatists in South Ossetia (1991–2012) and Abkhazia (1992–2012). Our analysis of insurgent and government violence reciprocity illustrates some expected patterns of what we call the operational costs of context. By varying the dimensions for our units of analysis-the context within which violent interactions take place-however, we arrive at differing conclusions. Our research represents a meaningful and transparent engagement with the influences of the well-known and understudied modifiable areal unit problem (MAUP) in geographically sensitive analysis.