Research on dynamical mechanism of land desertification

摘要

Changes in climate,environment and human activity are the main factors responsible for the evolution of land desertification in Hainan Island, among these, the state's policy-oriented human activities are the key point to control the evolution of land system. The cellular automata model of land desertification can better describe the self-organization mechanism of the evolution of desertified land system, whose entropy tends to become small. Based on the analyses of the evolution processes and dynamical mechanism of land desertification in the western part of Hainan Island, the cellular automata model of land desertification was developed, land desertification state in the western Hainan Island in the 2010 was predicted and two experiments of representative virtual policies were conducted. This leads to the conclusions that: (1) The virtual laboratory of land desertification control policies established on the basis of the cellular automata techniques can effectively emulate, predict and visually express the spatial-temporal processes of land desertification dominated by a number of policies; (2) In the coming 5-10 years, if the present land development patterns and policies continue, land desertification in the western part of Hainan Island will tend to significantly expand, therefore some policies and measures favorable to reverse desertification must be adopted.