Risks of tunnel accidents are not only measured by probabilistic quantitative risk analyses, also more qualitative scenario analyses are an important contribution to achieving an optimal tunnel safety level. Scenario analyses may be carried out during all stages of the development process. Most of the experiences up to now result from scenario analyses during the design stage, at the point where only a limited number of tunnel design options have survived. The scenario analysis described in this paper aims at optimising the management of the processes occurring before, during and after an accident. The focus is on self rescue and emergency response. At an earlier stage, a scenario analysis may be useful when making an overview of the required safety measures for both large an small scale accidents. Furthermore, scenario analyses may be input to the decision making process regarding the construction of a tunnel. In this paper, scenario analyses for road tunnels are described from the point of view of (ⅰ) the organisational and administrative environment, (ⅱ) the differences between quantitative risk analyses and scenario analyses, (ⅲ) the structure and elements of a scenario analysis. Furthermore, the first version of the Guideline Scenario Analysis for Tunnel Accidents and some preliminary application results are reported.
展开▼
