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On the need of considering the risk dimension in electrical supply capacity planning

机译:在供电能力规划中需要考虑风险维度

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The electrical energy sector in Spain has suffered an important transformation during the last years. Following the recommendations of the International Energy Agency (IEA), traditional approaches of energy planning are replaced by a new policy considering: liberalization of markets, competitiveness of costs, security of supply and environmental protection. In this new strategic framework, the selection of electrical technologies supposes to assume certain risk to humans, environment and property. This suggests the convenience of adapting the electrical supply capacity planning based on a traditional cost-benefit analysis by the inclusion of the risk dimension. Competitive comparison of the different technologies of electricity supply based on a risk-cost-benefit (RCB) analysis should yield decision makers to select the most appropriate one as regard to these three dimensions. The paper presents the fundamentals of the RCB analysis in electrical supply capacity planning using an example of application. Strengths and weaknesses of the different technologies are revised from the results achieved in this example comparing both traditional CB and RCB approaches.
机译:过去几年中,西班牙的电能行业经历了重要的变革。根据国际能源机构(IEA)的建议,传统的能源计划方法被考虑以下因素的新政策所取代:市场自由化,成本竞争力,供应安全和环境保护。在这个新的战略框架中,电气技术的选择假定会对人类,环境和财产承担一定的风险。这表明通过包含风险维度,可以基于传统的成本效益分析来调整供电能力计划,这很方便。根据风险成本效益(RCB)分析对不同供电技术进行竞争性比较,应使决策者从这三个方面中选择最合适的一种。本文通过一个应用示例介绍了RCB分析在供电容量规划中的基础。通过比较传统的CB和RCB方法在本示例中获得的结果,修订了不同技术的优点和缺点。

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