The risk assessment of ships manoeuvring on the waterways based on generalised simulation data

摘要

This paper presents a new probabilistic method of navigational risk assessment. The method is based on real time simulation results. It is a complex method which consists of three separate methods: real time ship manoeuvring simulations, Monte Carlo method and analytical model of accident consequences. It allows for extending the simulation results over the waterway lifetime and all possible meteorological conditions. The main advantage over the fast time simulations is elimination of inaccurate human navigator models. The navigator behaviour is propagated to this method by means of several statistical distributions.