Reviewing Government Policy on Rice Price: Study Through Rice Price In East Java Market

摘要

That HET is considered too low to absorp farmer's rice so that rice processing industry becomes farmer's choice to sell rice and their product become choice on middle and upper class consumer, especially urban society. This research was conducted to analyze the HET policy by forecasting on rice price through study in East Java market during 12 months later (June 2019). This research got a monthly rice price in East Java during January 2014 - June 2018 which was obtained from SIKAPERBAPO Department of Industry and Trade East Java Province. There were three kinds of rice which would be forecasted. They were Bengawan, Mentik, and IR64. The forecasting is conducted using ARIMA method. Based on ARIMA method, the best ARIMA to forecast the price and support the review that rice policy is unsuitable are ARIMA (4, 1, 2) for bengawan rice, ARIMA (3, 1, 2) for mentik rice, and ARIMA (2, 1, 2) for IR64 rice. It is important to review again about policy of rice HET by considering supply and demand on rice maket. The indication of monopolistic behaviour on rice market could not be denied in line with the development of rice as consumer goods. If in this case BULOG (Logistic Affair Agency) takes a role on rice downstream, it is necessary to review again related to the determination of HET and supported facilities to improve rice brand of local farmer so that farmer share and bargaining position of farmer increases.