Risk analysis and prevention of oil terminal storage and transportation facilities based on Fuzzy Evidential Reasoning

摘要

Safety of oil terminal storage and transportation facilities (OTSTFs) is an important task within port operations and management. However, port professionals lack appropriate techniques to assess risks and prioritize protective measures for OTSTF. In this paper, failure modes of 6 kinds of OTSTF are identified to analyze risk sources. In response to the uncertainties, fuzzy set theory is used to evaluate risk factors of OTSTF. Evidential reasoning approach is employed to synthesis the information and conduct the risk assessment of each kind of OTSTF. A risk prevention mechanism is also built, including a risk source monitoring system and some prevention measures. The results show the applicability of the proposed methodology and model for risk management of OTSTF.