DYNAMIC DECISION-MAKING MODEL FOR TRAFFIC ORGANIZATION WITHIN TRAFFIC SEPARATION SCHEME DURING MARITIME ACCIDENT PROCESS

摘要

The traffic organization within traffic separation scheme can be generally treated as a trade-off between shipping efficiency and maritime safety. As the maritime accident development is widely accepted as a process including initiating event, mid-event and end event, the traffic organization during this process should not only consider the current situation but also the future situation. In order to address this problem, a dynamic decision-making method, where time is treated as dependent, is proposed in this paper. The kernel of the proposed approach is to analyze the sequence of accident using event tree, to establish a dynamic decision-making method with decision matrix of multiple states, and to make final decision by introducing Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to an Ideal Solution. The result is also compared with the traditional time independent decision-making, which makes decisions only with the current data. Consequently, the dynamic decision-making method can make a comprehensive and feasible solution to traffic organization during maritime accident process.