The Forget-me-not Process

摘要

We introduce the Forget-me-not Process, an efficient, non-parametric meta-algorithm for online probabilistic sequence prediction for piecewise stationary, repeating sources. Our method works by taking a Bayesian approach to partitioning a stream of data into postulated task-specific segments, while simultaneously building a model for each task. We provide regret guarantees with respect to piece-wise stationary data sources under the logarithmic loss, and validate the method empirically across a range of sequence prediction and task identification problems.