Detect Method of Time Series' Abnormal Value for Predictive Model

摘要

Abnormal value that in the predictive model of Ad Hoc networks may affecting the whole system's working efficiency. We proposed a new detect method to dealing with this problem, constructed a forwarding model firstly, and then constructed a suitable model function through smoothing and modeling the time series. By using the mean shift model, we calculated the time series posterior probabilities and abnormal perturbation values, and then adjusted them, so as to weakening the influence of time series abnormal value. To verifying the efficiency of this forwarding method, we selected a time series with 300 observation points as the numerical example, statistics and analysis results indicate that it will be helpful to improve the efficiency of prediction models if we using this method.