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Probabilistic Assessment of Fill Slope Stability

机译:填土边坡稳定性的概率评估

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Conventional slope stability analyses have commonly been based on a deterministic approach. Various deterministic-based analysis methods developed to date can assess the stability of a given slope using the factor of safety. However, it has been strongly debated that the use of only the factor of safety does not explicitly account for the uncertainties in soil parameters. In light of this, this paper uses the finite element limit analysis methods and conducts a probabilistic-based analysis of fill slope for the specific case of two-layered undrained clay. Results obtained show that slopes with large variations in soil properties may present an extremely high risk of a slope failure and this cannot be known if only a deterministic-based analysis is performed. Thus, this shows that more soil investigations can be performed to reduce the variation of the soil properties thereby reducing the risk of a slope failure. Different probabilistic charts based on different coefficients of variation in soil properties are provided in this paper. This study demonstrates that the finite element limit analysis methods can be applied in a probabilistic analysis.
机译:传统的边坡稳定性分析通常基于确定性方法。迄今为止开发的各种基于确定性的分析方法都可以使用安全系数来评估给定边坡的稳定性。但是,一直存在激烈的辩论,即仅使用安全系数并不能明确说明土壤参数的不确定性。有鉴于此,本文采用有限元极限分析方法,对两层不排水黏土的具体情况进行了基于概率的填土坡度分析。所获得的结果表明,土壤性质变化较大的斜坡可能会表现出极高的边坡破坏风险,如果仅执行基于确定性的分析,则这是未知的。因此,这表明可以进行更多的土壤调查以减少土壤性质的变化,从而降低边坡破坏的风险。本文提供了基于土壤特性变化系数的不同概率图。这项研究表明,有限元极限分析方法可以应用于概率分析。

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