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Probabilistic Assessment of Fill Slope Stability

机译:填充坡稳定性的概率评估

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Conventional slope stability analyses have commonly been based on a deterministic approach. Various deterministic-based analysis methods developed to date can assess the stability of a given slope using the factor of safety. However, it has been strongly debated that the use of only the factor of safety does not explicitly account for the uncertainties in soil parameters. In light of this, this paper uses the finite element limit analysis methods and conducts a probabilistic-based analysis of fill slope for the specific case of two-layered undrained clay. Results obtained show that slopes with large variations in soil properties may present an extremely high risk of a slope failure and this cannot be known if only a deterministic-based analysis is performed. Thus, this shows that more soil investigations can be performed to reduce the variation of the soil properties thereby reducing the risk of a slope failure. Different probabilistic charts based on different coefficients of variation in soil properties are provided in this paper. This study demonstrates that the finite element limit analysis methods can be applied in a probabilistic analysis.
机译:传统的斜率稳定性分析通常基于确定性方法。迄今为止开发的各种基于确定的分析方法可以利用安全因素来评估给定斜率的稳定性。但是,它得到了强烈辩论的是,只有安全因素的使用没有明确地解释土壤参数的不确定性。鉴于此,本文采用了有限元限制分析方法,并对两层未染色的粘土的特定情况进行了基于概率的填充坡分析。得到的结果表明,土壤性质的大变化的斜率可能呈现极高的斜率故障的风险,并且如果仅执行基于确定的分析,则不能知道这一点。因此,这表明可以进行更多的土壤调查以降低土壤性质的变化,从而降低了斜坡故障的风险。本文提供了基于不同的土壤性能变化系数的不同概率图。本研究表明,有限元极限分析方法可以应用于概率分析。

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