MEASURING THE TRAILING-END OF TECHNOLOGICAL SYSTEM EVOLUTION

摘要

Technological evolution is traditionally represented by the S-curve model that considers the introductions of successively higher levels of technological performance over time. Taking a systemic view of technology, we propose that the traditional method measures the leading-end of the system?s evolution, and therefore does not provide comprehensive information when analysis needs to focus on the system?s most backward components. In this paper, we subsequently develop a method to measure the trailing-end of technological system evolution, which considers the changes in the lowest levels of technological performance supported by the system. We, in turn, derive an additional measure, which evaluates the number of technological performance levels that lie between the leading and trailingends of system performance, across time. We then employ these measures in a longitudinal study of the PC (personal computer) game technological system, incorporating 2889 data points on PC game performance. The empirical study shows that the system?s evolution at the leading-end follows the traditional S-curve representation, while the trailing-end increases in small increments over time. Subsequently, the number of performance levels that is supported by the PC game system grows over time until the attainment of relative stability in performance level numbers, denoting a state of dynamic equilibrium. We consider the managerial and scholarly implications of our proposed measuring methods by discussing their applicability in the context of energy production, where renewable energy technologies form the leading-end and traditional energy production techniques form the trailing-end of the system?s evolution toward greener energy production.