MEASURING THE TRAILING-END OF TECHNOLOGICAL SYSTEM EVOLUTION

摘要

Technological evolution is traditionally represented by the S-curve model that considers thernintroductions of successively higher levels of technological performance over time. Taking a systemicrnview of technology, we propose that the traditional method measures the leading-end of the system?srnevolution, and therefore does not provide comprehensive information when analysis needs to focus onrnthe system?s most backward components. In this paper, we subsequently develop a method to measurernthe trailing-end of technological system evolution, which considers the changes in the lowest levels ofrntechnological performance supported by the system. We, in turn, derive an additional measure, whichrnevaluates the number of technological performance levels that lie between the leading and trailingendsrnof system performance, across time. We then employ these measures in a longitudinal study ofrnthe PC (personal computer) game technological system, incorporating 2889 data points on PC gamernperformance. The empirical study shows that the system?s evolution at the leading-end follows therntraditional S-curve representation, while the trailing-end increases in small increments over time.rnSubsequently, the number of performance levels that is supported by the PC game system grows overrntime until the attainment of relative stability in performance level numbers, denoting a state ofrndynamic equilibrium. We consider the managerial and scholarly implications of our proposedrnmeasuring methods by discussing their applicability in the context of energy production, wherernrenewable energy technologies form the leading-end and traditional energy production techniquesrnform the trailing-end of the system?s evolution toward greener energy production.