Continuous Travel Time Prediction for Transit Signal Priority Based on a Deep Network

摘要

It has been recognized by many researchers that accurate bus travel time prediction is critical for successful deployment of traffic signal priority (TSP) systems. Although there exist a lot of studies on travel time prediction for Advanced Traveler Information Systems (ATIS), this problem for TSP purpose is a little different and the amount of literature is limited. This paper proposes a deep learning based approach for continuous travel time prediction problem. Parameters of the deep network are fine-tuned following a layer-by-layer pre-training procedure on a dataset generated by traffic simulations. Variables that may affect continuous travel time are selected carefully. Experiments are conducted to validate the performance of the proposed model. The results indicate that the proposed model produces prediction with mean absolute error less than 4 seconds, which is accurate enough for TSP operations. This paper also reveals that, except for obvious factors like speed, travel distance and traffic density, the signal time when the prediction is made is also an important factor affecting travel time.