Quantitative Risk Assessment Method for Regional Port Major Hazard Installations and Its Application

摘要

Safety risk prevention and control for regional port major hazard installations have a high priority in the safety management of waterway transportation in the Yangtze River. In this study, by considering the risk characteristics for a dense area of major port hazard installations, a quantitative risk assessment method was established, including an assessment process, calculation model, core quantification indexes and acceptable risk criteria. Moreover, a geographically based method for presenting societal risk was applied to analyze the spatial distribution characteristics of societal risk and illustrate the most affected areas. In addition, a case study was examined in Jiangyin Port. The results showed that both the regional "individual risk" and the regional "societal risk" were within acceptable limits, although risk prevention and control measures were still needed to reduce risks whenever possible. Geographical societal risk analysis of contributing sources and spatial distribution characteristics showed that: 1) the priority risk prevention and control measures should be conducted in Huaxi Chemical Corporation, which contributed most to regional societal risk; and 2) more attention should be paid to the five villages (Guojia Wei Village, Jijia Village, Huangjia Dan Village, Jinchang Wei Village, and Yangjia Wei Village) that have large societal risk.