GIS-based Spatial Analysis of Simulated Activity-Travel Patterns using FEATHERS Seoul Systems for Seoul Metropolitan Area

摘要

Travel behavior simulated to reflect local characteristics 1 becomes an important issue as local governments increasingly attempt TDM specific to their local context. One possible way to achieve this is a combined effort from activity-based simulation and GIS-based spatial analysis. Existing research however lacks either the prediction of travel behavior from local context in the simulation or the encapsulation of sub-local differences in such predictions. The paper using a GIS based spatial analysis aims to examine whether an activity-based model system simulates activity travel behavior that reflects geographical characteristics of the study area at the level of Traffic Analysis Zone (TAZ). To this end, data was collected from Household Travel Survey in Seoul Metropolitan Area (SMA). FEATHERS Seoul (FS) synthesized population and simulated activity travel behavior in the context of SMA for the base year of 2010 and the target year of 2030, respectively. A GIS-based spatial analysis was then applied to the resultant simulated activity-travel behavior. The major findings are following. First, spatial distribution of homogeneous simulated activity-travel groups distinguished three geographical areas in SMA with clear local contexts. Secondly, the changes in activity-travel behavior between the two distant years were in accordance with expectation along the social changes. Finally, global regression and geographically weighted regression respectively showed that the -association between activity-travel behavior and geographical characteristics is well supported across the study area and that localized regression relationships between TAZ variables and travel behavior also exists. The latter implies that a fine tuning of activity-travel simulation is required for local transportation policy development.