MAJOR GEOPOLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS THAT COULD IMPACT ON OIL SUPPLIES FROM THE ARAB GULF REGION

摘要

Four major geopolitical developments have the potential to impact on the flow of oil supplies fromthe Arab Gulf region: Iran’s nuclear programme, the US shale oil revolution, the natural gasdiscoveries in the eastern Mediterranean and the steep-rising domestic oil consumption among theArab Gulf States and a lack of a meaningful diversification of their economies. Whilst Iran’s nuclearprogramme with the inherent risk of war in the Gulf could have direct and serious impact on the flowof oil from the region and the price of oil, its adverse impact would be short-lived. On the other hand,both the US shale oil revolution and the eastern Mediterranean gas discoveries would virtually haveno impact. However, the real threat to oil supplies from the Gulf region in the long term actuallycomes from the steeply-rising domestic oil consumption among the Gulf States and a lack ofmeaningful diversification of their economies. This means they will have to cut their domestic oilconsumption drastically or replace oil with nuclear power and solar energy for electricity-generationand water desalination. Failing to do either would result in their relegation to minor crude oilexporters by 2025 or ceasing to remain oil exporters by 2032 altogether.