FAI and Production Researches on Bejie's 12th 5-Year Plan of China

摘要

In this paper we made fixed assets investment (FAI) forecasting analyses of Bijie District, which located at the northwest of Guizhou Province and southwest of China, for the 12th Five-Year Plan period with ARIMA and the CD production function. In the period environment protection, water conservancy and livelihood such like social security, education, medical system, etc. will also have huge investment funds besides industrials. FAI of Bijie will have capacity between 700 to 900-billion yuan, amount to 105 to 135-billion US dollar. And GDP development speed may get between120% to 130% at current prices in the soaring process of the western part of China. We also calculated the influence coefficient(IC), response coefficient(RC) and relevancy coefficient(IC+RC) of the manufacture industrial departments to analyze the industrial relevance of Guizhou., and discussed the industrial relevance and distribution specialty of Guizhou and Bijie. Comparing with the industry relevance of China we dicussed the industrial structure and adjustment of the mainstay industrials overall arrangement of Guizhou and Bijie.