Dynamic Blurry Evaluation Model of Complex Risk of the Super-huge Engineering Project Based on Game Theory

摘要

This paper emphasis that to evaluate the complex risk about super-huge type project, we should not only think about the probability and valuable influence of risk, but also put in factors of the main body's value preference and dynamic game playing. Thus method makes the evaluation has more rational behavioral base. Firstly, this paper analyses the characteristic of the risk evaluation and game-playing feature in the process of risk development. Secondly, it builds evaluation index system and the dynamic and blurry evaluation model for the risks. Thirdly, it tests and amends the important parameters using testing methods of behavior economics. Lastly, it uses this model to counts four main kind of risks index for a representative project. It can provide a useful and simple tool for complex risk evaluation and public communication of the super-huge type project.